← The Card Shop PLT MRC Store Championship
Water AlliesTier 2
at The Card Shop PLT MRC Store Championship
decks
5
(20.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
23
9-12-2
overall winrate
43.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
34.6%
avg ELO -5.8 per match
expected value
46.8%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
41.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1272
· median 1278
· range 1164–1335
(5 pilots with an ELO rating)
1005
Q1 1221
Q3 1391
1571
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
20% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 20.0% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 38.6% | -6.6 |
| Wind Allies | 20.0% | 6 | 2-4-0 | 33.3% | 40.0% | 33.9% | -8.6 |
| Fire Aggro | 8.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 59.0% | +8.6 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 4.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.0% | -22.5 |
| Fire Lorraine | 4.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.0% | +9.6 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 60.0% | +9.6 |
| Fire Slimes | 4.0% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 27.6% | -16.7 |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 4.0% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 40.5% | -9.1 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 4.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.7% | -3.6 |
Decklists · 5 from this event
The 5 public Water Allies decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
